Model Profile

Anthropic

World Cup 2026 Predictions

Full tournament predictions from group stage to final, locked before the opening match. Game-day picks will appear after those runs are made.

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Bracket lockedBefore kickoff · June 2026
Predicted ChampionSpain flagSpain
Win probability56%
Anthropic Score (Matches Correct)
Pre-tournament
(Baseline)TBD / 104
Day of Game PredictionTBD / 104

Overview

Anthropic is running Fable 5 for this World Cup benchmark.

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ModelFable 5
Winner PickSpain
Pre-tournament ScoreTBD / 104
Game-Day ScoreTBD / 104

Groups

Predicted group standings. Top 2 teams from each group advance to the Round of 32.

Group ATo Advance
TeamPts
1Mexico flagMexico9
2Korea Republic flagKorea Republic6
3Czechia flagCzechia3
4South Africa flagSouth Africa0
Group BTo Advance
TeamPts
1Switzerland flagSwitzerland9
2Canada flagCanada6
3Bosnia and Herzegovina flagBosnia and Herzegovina3
4Qatar flagQatar0
Group CTo Advance
TeamPts
1Brazil flagBrazil9
2Morocco flagMorocco6
3Scotland flagScotland3
4Haiti flagHaiti0
Group DTo Advance
TeamPts
1USA flagUSA9
2Türkiye flagTürkiye6
3Paraguay flagParaguay3
4Australia flagAustralia0
Group ETo Advance
TeamPts
1Germany flagGermany9
2Ecuador flagEcuador6
3Côte d'Ivoire flagCôte d'Ivoire3
4Curaçao flagCuraçao0
Group FTo Advance
TeamPts
1Netherlands flagNetherlands9
2Japan flagJapan6
3Sweden flagSweden3
4Tunisia flagTunisia0
Group GTo Advance
TeamPts
1Belgium flagBelgium9
2Egypt flagEgypt6
3IR Iran flagIR Iran3
4New Zealand flagNew Zealand0
Group HTo Advance
TeamPts
1Spain flagSpain9
2Uruguay flagUruguay6
3Cabo Verde flagCabo Verde3
4Saudi Arabia flagSaudi Arabia0
Group ITo Advance
TeamPts
1France flagFrance9
2Norway flagNorway6
3Senegal flagSenegal3
4Iraq flagIraq0
Group JTo Advance
TeamPts
1Argentina flagArgentina9
2Austria flagAustria6
3Algeria flagAlgeria3
4Jordan flagJordan0
Group KTo Advance
TeamPts
1Portugal flagPortugal9
2Colombia flagColombia6
3Uzbekistan flagUzbekistan3
4Congo DR flagCongo DR0
Group LTo Advance
TeamPts
1England flagEngland9
2Croatia flagCroatia6
3Ghana flagGhana3
4Panama flagPanama0

Knockout Bracket

Predicted path from the Round of 32 to the final.

All Matches
Round of 32
Germany flagGermanyCzechia flagCzechia
France flagFranceSweden flagSweden
Korea Republic flagKorea RepublicCanada flagCanada
Netherlands flagNetherlandsMorocco flagMorocco
Colombia flagColombiaCroatia flagCroatia
Spain flagSpainAustria flagAustria
USA flagUSABosnia and Herzegovina flagBosnia and Herzegovina
Belgium flagBelgiumAlgeria flagAlgeria
Round of 16
Germany flagGermanyFrance flagFrance
Canada flagCanadaNetherlands flagNetherlands
Colombia flagColombiaSpain flagSpain
USA flagUSABelgium flagBelgium
Quarterfinals
France flagFranceNetherlands flagNetherlands
Spain flagSpainUSA flagUSA
Semifinals
France flagFranceSpain flagSpain
Final
Final
Spain flagSpainArgentina flagArgentina
Predicted Champion
Spain flagSpain
56% win probability
Semifinals
England flagEnglandArgentina flagArgentina
Quarterfinals
Brazil flagBrazilEngland flagEngland
Argentina flagArgentinaPortugal flagPortugal
Round of 16
Brazil flagBrazilNorway flagNorway
Mexico flagMexicoEngland flagEngland
Argentina flagArgentinaTürkiye flagTürkiye
Switzerland flagSwitzerlandPortugal flagPortugal
Round of 32
Brazil flagBrazilJapan flagJapan
Ecuador flagEcuadorNorway flagNorway
Mexico flagMexicoSenegal flagSenegal
England flagEnglandCôte d'Ivoire flagCôte d'Ivoire
Argentina flagArgentinaUruguay flagUruguay
Türkiye flagTürkiyeEgypt flagEgypt
Switzerland flagSwitzerlandIR Iran flagIR Iran
Portugal flagPortugalParaguay flagParaguay

All Matches

Pre-tournament picks are available for every scheduled match. Game-day picks are pending.

MatchFixturePre-tournament PickGame-Day Pick
M001Thu, Jun 11, 1:00 PMMexico vs South AfricaPre-tournamentMexico flagMexico64%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M002Thu, Jun 11, 8:00 PMKorea Republic vs CzechiaPre-tournamentKorea Republic flagKorea Republic40%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M003Fri, Jun 12, 3:00 PMCanada vs Bosnia and HerzegovinaPre-tournamentCanada flagCanada52%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M004Fri, Jun 12, 6:00 PMUSA vs ParaguayPre-tournamentUSA flagUSA52%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M005Sat, Jun 13, 9:00 PMHaiti vs ScotlandPre-tournamentScotland flagScotland56%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M006Sat, Jun 13, 9:00 PMAustralia vs TürkiyePre-tournamentTürkiye flagTürkiye48%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M007Sat, Jun 13, 6:00 PMBrazil vs MoroccoPre-tournamentBrazil flagBrazil44%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M008Sat, Jun 13, 12:00 PMQatar vs SwitzerlandPre-tournamentSwitzerland flagSwitzerland68%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M009Sun, Jun 14, 7:00 PMCôte d'Ivoire vs EcuadorPre-tournamentEcuador flagEcuador40%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M010Sun, Jun 14, 12:00 PMGermany vs CuraçaoPre-tournamentGermany flagGermany75%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M011Sun, Jun 14, 3:00 PMNetherlands vs JapanPre-tournamentNetherlands flagNetherlands38%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M012Sun, Jun 14, 8:00 PMSweden vs TunisiaPre-tournamentSweden flagSweden48%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M013Mon, Jun 15, 6:00 PMSaudi Arabia vs UruguayPre-tournamentUruguay flagUruguay56%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M014Mon, Jun 15, 12:00 PMSpain vs Cabo VerdePre-tournamentSpain flagSpain80%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M015Mon, Jun 15, 6:00 PMIR Iran vs New ZealandPre-tournamentIR Iran flagIR Iran52%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M016Mon, Jun 15, 12:00 PMBelgium vs EgyptPre-tournamentBelgium flagBelgium48%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M017Tue, Jun 16, 3:00 PMFrance vs SenegalPre-tournamentFrance flagFrance50%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M018Tue, Jun 16, 6:00 PMIraq vs NorwayPre-tournamentNorway flagNorway66%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M019Tue, Jun 16, 8:00 PMArgentina vs AlgeriaPre-tournamentArgentina flagArgentina62%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M020Tue, Jun 16, 9:00 PMAustria vs JordanPre-tournamentAustria flagAustria58%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M021Wed, Jun 17, 7:00 PMGhana vs PanamaPre-tournamentGhana flagGhana44%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M022Wed, Jun 17, 3:00 PMEngland vs CroatiaPre-tournamentEngland flagEngland48%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M023Wed, Jun 17, 12:00 PMPortugal vs Congo DRPre-tournamentPortugal flagPortugal70%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M024Wed, Jun 17, 8:00 PMUzbekistan vs ColombiaPre-tournamentColombia flagColombia50%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M025Thu, Jun 18, 12:00 PMCzechia vs South AfricaPre-tournamentCzechia flagCzechia48%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M026Thu, Jun 18, 12:00 PMSwitzerland vs Bosnia and HerzegovinaPre-tournamentSwitzerland flagSwitzerland50%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M027Thu, Jun 18, 3:00 PMCanada vs QatarPre-tournamentCanada flagCanada65%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M028Thu, Jun 18, 7:00 PMMexico vs Korea RepublicPre-tournamentMexico flagMexico45%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M029Fri, Jun 19, 8:30 PMBrazil vs HaitiPre-tournamentBrazil flagBrazil78%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M030Fri, Jun 19, 6:00 PMScotland vs MoroccoPre-tournamentMorocco flagMorocco48%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M031Fri, Jun 19, 8:00 PMTürkiye vs ParaguayPre-tournamentTürkiye flagTürkiye42%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M032Fri, Jun 19, 12:00 PMUSA vs AustraliaPre-tournamentUSA flagUSA55%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M033Sat, Jun 20, 4:00 PMGermany vs Côte d'IvoirePre-tournamentGermany flagGermany55%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M034Sat, Jun 20, 7:00 PMEcuador vs CuraçaoPre-tournamentEcuador flagEcuador62%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M035Sat, Jun 20, 12:00 PMNetherlands vs SwedenPre-tournamentNetherlands flagNetherlands48%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M036Sat, Jun 20, 10:00 PMTunisia vs JapanPre-tournamentJapan flagJapan52%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M037Sun, Jun 21, 6:00 PMUruguay vs Cabo VerdePre-tournamentUruguay flagUruguay62%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M038Sun, Jun 21, 12:00 PMSpain vs Saudi ArabiaPre-tournamentSpain flagSpain74%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M039Sun, Jun 21, 12:00 PMBelgium vs IR IranPre-tournamentBelgium flagBelgium56%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M040Sun, Jun 21, 6:00 PMNew Zealand vs EgyptPre-tournamentEgypt flagEgypt52%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M041Mon, Jun 22, 8:00 PMNorway vs SenegalPre-tournamentNorway flagNorway40%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M042Mon, Jun 22, 5:00 PMFrance vs IraqPre-tournamentFrance flagFrance76%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M043Mon, Jun 22, 12:00 PMArgentina vs AustriaPre-tournamentArgentina flagArgentina52%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M044Mon, Jun 22, 8:00 PMJordan vs AlgeriaPre-tournamentAlgeria flagAlgeria44%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M045Tue, Jun 23, 4:00 PMEngland vs GhanaPre-tournamentEngland flagEngland62%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M046Tue, Jun 23, 7:00 PMPanama vs CroatiaPre-tournamentCroatia flagCroatia53%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M047Tue, Jun 23, 12:00 PMPortugal vs UzbekistanPre-tournamentPortugal flagPortugal66%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M048Tue, Jun 23, 8:00 PMColombia vs Congo DRPre-tournamentColombia flagColombia60%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M049Wed, Jun 24, 6:00 PMScotland vs BrazilPre-tournamentBrazil flagBrazil60%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M050Wed, Jun 24, 6:00 PMMorocco vs HaitiPre-tournamentMorocco flagMorocco72%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M051Wed, Jun 24, 12:00 PMSwitzerland vs CanadaPre-tournamentSwitzerland flagSwitzerland36%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M052Wed, Jun 24, 12:00 PMBosnia and Herzegovina vs QatarPre-tournamentBosnia and Herzegovina flagBosnia and Herzegovina48%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M053Wed, Jun 24, 7:00 PMCzechia vs MexicoPre-tournamentMexico flagMexico46%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M054Wed, Jun 24, 7:00 PMSouth Africa vs Korea RepublicPre-tournamentKorea Republic flagKorea Republic50%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M055Thu, Jun 25, 4:00 PMCuraçao vs Côte d'IvoirePre-tournamentCôte d'Ivoire flagCôte d'Ivoire56%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M056Thu, Jun 25, 4:00 PMEcuador vs GermanyPre-tournamentGermany flagGermany44%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M057Thu, Jun 25, 6:00 PMJapan vs SwedenPre-tournamentJapan flagJapan42%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M058Thu, Jun 25, 6:00 PMTunisia vs NetherlandsPre-tournamentNetherlands flagNetherlands60%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M059Thu, Jun 25, 7:00 PMTürkiye vs USAPre-tournamentUSA flagUSA38%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M060Thu, Jun 25, 7:00 PMParaguay vs AustraliaPre-tournamentParaguay flagParaguay40%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M061Fri, Jun 26, 3:00 PMNorway vs FrancePre-tournamentFrance flagFrance44%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M062Fri, Jun 26, 3:00 PMSenegal vs IraqPre-tournamentSenegal flagSenegal64%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M063Fri, Jun 26, 8:00 PMEgypt vs IR IranPre-tournamentEgypt flagEgypt38%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M064Fri, Jun 26, 8:00 PMNew Zealand vs BelgiumPre-tournamentBelgium flagBelgium64%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M065Fri, Jun 26, 7:00 PMCabo Verde vs Saudi ArabiaPre-tournamentCabo Verde flagCabo Verde38%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M066Fri, Jun 26, 6:00 PMUruguay vs SpainPre-tournamentSpain flagSpain43%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M067Sat, Jun 27, 5:00 PMPanama vs EnglandPre-tournamentEngland flagEngland71%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M068Sat, Jun 27, 5:00 PMCroatia vs GhanaPre-tournamentCroatia flagCroatia50%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M069Sat, Jun 27, 9:00 PMAlgeria vs AustriaPre-tournamentAustria flagAustria40%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M070Sat, Jun 27, 9:00 PMJordan vs ArgentinaPre-tournamentArgentina flagArgentina71%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M071Sat, Jun 27, 7:30 PMColombia vs PortugalPre-tournamentPortugal flagPortugal40%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M072Sat, Jun 27, 7:30 PMCongo DR vs UzbekistanPre-tournamentUzbekistan flagUzbekistan42%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M073Sun, Jun 28, 12:00 PM2A vs 2BPre-tournament2B2B58%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M074Mon, Jun 29, 4:30 PM1E vs 3ABCDFPre-tournament1E1E72%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M075Mon, Jun 29, 7:00 PM1F vs 2CPre-tournament1F1F55%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M076Mon, Jun 29, 12:00 PM1C vs 2FPre-tournament1C1C58%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M077Tue, Jun 30, 5:00 PM1I vs 3CDFGHPre-tournament1I1I68%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M078Tue, Jun 30, 12:00 PM2E vs 2IPre-tournament2I2I56%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M079Tue, Jun 30, 7:00 PM1A vs 3CEFHIPre-tournament1A1A54%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M080Wed, Jul 1, 12:00 PM1L vs 3EHIJKPre-tournament1L1L66%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M081Wed, Jul 1, 5:00 PM1D vs 3BEFIJPre-tournament1D1D67%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M082Wed, Jul 1, 1:00 PM1G vs 3AEHIJPre-tournament1G1G63%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M083Thu, Jul 2, 7:00 PM2K vs 2LPre-tournament2K2K53%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M084Thu, Jul 2, 12:00 PM1H vs 2JPre-tournament1H1H67%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M085Thu, Jul 2, 8:00 PM1B vs 3EFGIJPre-tournament1B1B65%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M086Fri, Jul 3, 6:00 PM1J vs 2HPre-tournament1J1J56%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M087Fri, Jul 3, 8:30 PM1K vs 3DEIJLPre-tournament1K1K70%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M088Fri, Jul 3, 1:00 PM2D vs 2GPre-tournament2D2D56%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M089Sat, Jul 4, 5:00 PMW74 vs W77Pre-tournamentW77W7755%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M090Sat, Jul 4, 12:00 PMW73 vs W75Pre-tournamentW75W7562%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M091Sun, Jul 5, 4:00 PMW76 vs W78Pre-tournamentW76W7660%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M092Sun, Jul 5, 6:00 PMW79 vs W80Pre-tournamentW80W8060%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M093Mon, Jul 6, 2:00 PMW83 vs W84Pre-tournamentW84W8465%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M094Mon, Jul 6, 5:00 PMW81 vs W82Pre-tournamentW81W8152%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M095Tue, Jul 7, 12:00 PMW86 vs W88Pre-tournamentW86W8662%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M096Tue, Jul 7, 1:00 PMW85 vs W87Pre-tournamentW87W8762%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M097Thu, Jul 9, 4:00 PMW89 vs W90Pre-tournamentW89W8958%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M098Fri, Jul 10, 12:00 PMW93 vs W94Pre-tournamentW93W9368%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M099Sat, Jul 11, 5:00 PMW91 vs W92Pre-tournamentW92W9252%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M100Sat, Jul 11, 8:00 PMW95 vs W96Pre-tournamentW95W9556%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M101Tue, Jul 14, 2:00 PMW97 vs W98Pre-tournamentW98W9852%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M102Wed, Jul 15, 3:00 PMW99 vs W100Pre-tournamentW100W10052%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M103Sat, Jul 18, 5:00 PMRU101 vs RU102Pre-tournamentRU101RU10155%Game dayPendingNot run yet
M104Sun, Jul 19, 3:00 PMW101 vs W102Pre-tournamentW101W10156%Game dayPendingNot run yet

Insights

Quick read on this model's tournament shape.

Champion conviction56% on Spain

The champion pick is carried through the final bracket path.

Advancement calls24 group qualifiers

Each group has two projected teams advancing to the knockout stage.

Coverage104 match picks

Pre-tournament predictions are loaded for every listed match. Game-day predictions have not run yet.